Speed Six should land the biggest prize in Indian racing history

The Gr 1 Bangalore Derby will have a full complement of 18 runners and will also offer the highest ever prize money in the country. The winner is set to take home a whopping prize money of Rs 1, 42,08,000 which is much higher than what this year’s Indian Derby winner Moonlight Romance earned. Star Is Born, who is yet to win a race, was balloted out as the starting gates cannot accommodate more runners. Saratoga Spring also is a maiden but he went through by virtue of having higher rating.

When there are so many runners in the fray especially in a tight race course like Bangalore where the runners have to take the bend soon after jump out and by the time they settle down, they would have gone well beyond the mile marker, the luck of the race has a bearing though we have seen the best horses rarely get affected because the mediocre horses cannot pace with them. Barring the unforeseen, one has to go with pedigree and performance while deciding on one’s choices. The cliché that the race has an open look about it is absurd because there is no race which is a closed affair. We have had horses like Mystical, Set Alight and Southern Empire which looked seemingly invincible bite the dust in the Indian Derby.

Racing is such a field that there is no such thing as a certainty. Still even the experts hesitate to nominate their choice with any conviction for fear of being proved wrong. What are the credentials that we are looking it? Performance in the lead up race is of utmost consideration. Also we have to see if their pedigree can help them extend their superiority over the Derby trip. There is no such thing as horses winning the Derby trip merely because they are bred to stay. Ability is of crucial importance. You cannot call any one a good batsman unless he scores runs. Isn’t it?

Racing is all about conviction even if one fails to achieve desired results all the time. What is confidence? Is it the feeling of being better than the rest? Is it not being immune to influences? Is it not accommodating about what others think? Confidence is basically the belief in oneself and one’s ability to make the right choice. This mindset is a critical component in racing. We are prepared to die by somebody else’s conviction rather than get injured by one’s beliefs. Confidence is nothing but self-belief. Belief is basically a strong feeling of certainty about something that you are called upon to decide. So having belief in your ability to succeed means you feel quite certain that you can achieve success. Race goer is often confronted with the problem of self-belief which makes him skip races which he thinks is open and tricky. It is in finding winners in these races through self-belief especially when merit is the key to success is the path to be a winner in racing.

The Bangalore Derby has thrown a problem of choice for race goers. Should they go with the horses of proven merit or should they go for horses which were finishing on in the belief that they will overhaul those who were ahead over an extended trip because they seemed to be travelling well at the finish? Should we ignore the intrinsic worth of a winner? What are the factors that one should look at in picking a possible winner?

There is no substitute to performance. Horses with performance and pedigree are the ones which deserve to be supported with conviction. On this score, Pronto Pronto which won the Colts Championship Stakes, Speed Six who failed by a whisker, Severstahl, Star Marquees which was finishing coming into contention. Lovely Kiss, who won the Fillies Championship Stakes, Preordained who finished a good third despite going into the race without a run benefit and Nearness of You who did not get a clear run when finishing fourth are the front liners.

Speed Six who could have prevailed on Pronto Pronto with a more experienced rider is tipped to win the Derby because several factors go in his favour. During the summer season when there is always cut in the ground, the progeny of Burden of Proof relish on these conditions. Speed Six is well built, blessed with good turn of foot and has a good temperament. Though he had a hiccup as he hurt himself in his head which needed stiches a week before, he has not shown any ill-effect as evidenced by his workouts. With Chris Hayes to guide his fortunes, the support from the saddle should be good as the jockey is very familiar with the Bangalore track’s peculiar characteristics. I asked Pesi Shroff who has won this Derby several times, that if he were riding and had to make a choice among the 18 runners, who would he have preferred? ``I would have chosen to ride Speed Six because of his pedigree, conformation and his ability to accelerate especially on the track which has lot of given in the ground which is relished by the progeny of Burden of Proof. I think Lovely Kiss has a good temperament and should put up a good performance,’’ he said.
Imtiaz Sait trained Pronto Pronto has defied expectations each time he has run. He gave weight and a beating to his rivals in a graded race at Mumbai over a mile and then won the Colts Championship without a run benefit. The small made son of Major Impact has been working well. He is a good race horse, has already beaten all the colts in a race and there is no reason why he cannot extend his superiority over the extended trip and provide his trainer Imtiaz Sait with his first success in this race.

Trainer Dominic has entered Severstahl with a whopping final entry fee of Rs 16 lakhs. The progeny of Diffident will be at home over soft underfoot conditions. Severstahl finished third in the Colts Championship despite his shoe coming off. He has been working well and since the connections entered him as a final entry only on Wednesday, all is well with him. He should run a game race.

Ganapathy’s Star Marquees is improving with each run. The well-built son of Intikhab, who sired last year’s Irish Derby winner Snow Fairy, is bred to stay and was gaining ground on the first three finishers in the Colts Championship. Now over an extended trip, he should pose a stronger question to the market fancies.

Vittal Deshmukh trained Super Duper is working brilliantly and going only by his workouts, he comes into reckoning though his two runs on this track have been disappointing. It will be a big upset if this got abroad son were to come and win the Derby after two listless performances.

Samar Singh has a runner in the Derby for the first time. The daughter of sire sensation Rebuttal, Lovely Kiss is blessed with a good temperament. She has the ability to settle as per the requirement and is also blessed with good temperament. Being a light framed filly, she may relish top of the ground and her chances get boosted if the going does not become too slushy.

Preordained finished third in the Fillies Championship without a run benefit as she had twice dropped her jockeys en route to starting gate on earlier occasions. The daughter of Choisir who has thrown renowned sprinters, Preordained is bred to stay on the dam side. Trainer Padmanabhan has high hopes on this filly as he has summoned Epsom winning jockey Martin Dwyer to ride her. The jockey, in his formative years, had ridden in Bangalore for some time and during that stint, had also won the Indian 1000 Guineas on Running Flame.

Nearness of You is a strongly build daughter of Diffident out of Invitation Cup winning mare Forest Fantasy. Nearness of You was not fully stretched in the Fillies Championship as she did not get a clear run right through the race and was finishing on strongly when she had space for herself to gallop. She will have no issues with the distance but it remains to be seen whether the Derby has come too soon for her.
Any horse other than the ones mentioned above comes and wins the Derby, then it has to be in the mould of Lively Emprey who won this even at odds of 100 to 1 in the year 1984.

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