Why most punters back only favorites?

Race goers tend to back only favorites. The reasoning is that these horses have more chances of winning simply because they have been backed by the majority. Backing a favourite is a comforting factor for a punter. This is why a punter tends to go with favourites even when logic suggests that he may be making a wrong decision. A day’s result is often analyzed by most writers as to how many favorites won and if most races have been won by them, then they go with the belief that the majority has won. If the majority of races are won by lesser fancied runners, then such violent expressions as ``blood bath’’, ``severe drubbing’’, etc are used. Can we reduce betting so simplistically?

The favourite syndrome affects everyone including those who seem logical and believe in rationalizing everything they do. Even the professionals are not free from this trait of feeling that a favourite has a better chance of winning. I have quite often seen trainers being very confident about their horse much before race time but when that horse is less supported in the ring, they develop cold feet. Rarely can they tip a horse with conviction if it is running at long odds.

One of the trainers in Bangalore had tipped his horse as a certainty two days before the race was to run. To his surprise, despite being so open about his confidence, the horse opened at longer odds and remained so till a few hours before race time. Just as his confidence was taking a beating, the horse came in for sustained support, restoring his trust in the ability of his horse! If the said horse had run at a higher price, it is quite possible that he may have tipped his horse as a chance bet at race time instead of the emphatic way with which he went about telling his supporters to back the horse after the price on the horse shortened.

The reason why this influences the mindset of a punter or a racing professional is because he tends to find additional reason for justification to support his belief even at the cost of his logical thinking which is born out by being an insider to the state of preparedness of a horse to win. The betting pattern of the majority is more often than not dominated by lack of insight and rational calculation. But a punter opts for an easy way out because this will reduce his dissonance and make him feel better. The anxiety that comes with the possibility of having made a bad decision can lead to rationalization even if the said horse that he has backed has lost. Cognitive Dissonance is defined as an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding conflicting ideas simultaneously. To reduce this dissonance, a punter tends to justify his decision and if it does not work the way he expects, he resorts to blaming and denying. Quite often in horse racing, result defies expectation and in a state of dissonance, people rarely feel that they have made a mistake and they tend to justify their bias by irrational and destructive behavior. To put it cynically, a punter keeps making mistakes again and again but blames his mistake on someone else!

More than a decade ago, a leading trainer had two horses running in the Derby. The trainer was confident about the chances of the horse which was a long shot though he did not have the courage of conviction to say it openly. Of the two horses, one of them was an overwhelming favourite, having lost the Summer Derby by a whisker. In the event, the long priced horse won the race thrashing the favourite. In the post race Press Conference, the trainer said that he was pretty confident about the winner as he thought that the horse would stay better over a mile and half trip. When one of the reporters told him that by not revealing his mind before the race, he may have misled people. This lead to heated argument and that was the last post Derby Press Conference that has been held at Bangalore. Had the winner started as a joint favourite, then the trainer may have well said that the race was a toss up between the two but because one of the horses was an overwhelming favourite, he too believed like the majority and said that that the favourite was good till the race was over. Only a minority of race goers shun favourites.

These days, we have experts advising punters on why they should avoid favorites and how to lay the horse (In other words, instead of backing the favourite, take the bet on the favourite themselves). These experts extol punters not to be misled by hype, which is based on rumor and have opened consultancy services to guide them how to deviate from the trap that the majority fall into.

The mindset of a punter is always influenced by the fact of a horse being a favourite no matter how many times he is proved wrong. This perception can never change whatever theories that may be advocated against backing favorites. A big punter always swears by the favourite even if time and again he has lost a fortune. For the record, about 30 per cent of horses win as favorites world wide and anything higher than this is considered as a big deviation from the norm. Success visits favourites often but never sits with them permanently!