When the Favourites Lose Their Way
The Media Day card turned into anything
but a celebration for the punters. Favourites stumbled, outsiders flourished
and the form book took a beating severe enough to warrant a medical
examination. While upsets are an essential part of racing, a day when long
shots dominate almost every race inevitably raises questions about
predictability, confidence and the health of the sport. For punters, it was
less Media Day and more survival day.
By Sharan Kumar
It is customary in our race reviews to ask the most
important question of all: did the punters have a chance?
Every now and then, someone writes to say that the
races were run true to form and the punters went home happy. I am never quite
sure whether this is a serious observation or a confession that the gentleman
happened to find an outsider while everybody else was busy losing money.
Punters do not arrive at a racecourse armed with
crystal balls. They study form, watch how the bookmakers shape the ring, listen
to professional opinions and try to join the dots. When these indicators point
in roughly the same direction and the results follow, punters feel that racing
makes sense. They lose occasionally, win occasionally and, most importantly,
return for another day.
Upsets are part of racing. They are the seasoning in
the dish. But when the margin between a genuine upset and a result that leaves
everyone scratching their heads becomes too thin, questions inevitably follow.
Is the race being run fairly? Are the authorities looking closely enough? Are
the corrective mechanisms actually correcting anything?
These questions become more uncomfortable when the
racing establishment appears to be a rather small club in which everyone knows
everyone else. Professionals have their connections, information travels
through established channels and the stewards, who are expected to maintain an
independent watch, sometimes have the unenviable task of making decisions in an
atmosphere where the committee room itself has a temperature.
There were times when punters could identify certain
stables and say with confidence: if this stable means business, the horse will
run its race. That confidence has steadily disappeared. Today, it is becoming
increasingly difficult to name even one stable that the ordinary punter can
regard as a dependable barometer.
The decline in confidence is not helped by the growing
perception that bookmakers owning substantial numbers of horses can create yet
another layer of uncertainty. When the same ecosystem contains owners,
professionals, bookmakers, punters and officials, the question is no longer
simply who is the best horse. It becomes: what else should I know before I put
my money down?
And television does not exactly come to the rescue.
If racing television coverage in India matched the
quality available in the major racing jurisdictions abroad, half the burden of
policing would disappear. Instead, despite all the technological progress, some
of our racing pictures still resemble old Eastmancolor films, with the
occasional buffering acting as an unwanted suspense thriller. In close
finishes, the viewer sometimes needs a detective, a magnifying glass and
considerable faith.
Be that as it may, what was advertised as a Media Day
to honour publications that cover racing turned into something rather
different. The invitations, it appeared, were meant for those who applaud
politely rather than ask awkward questions. The racing, however, was in no mood
for polite applause.
It was a bloodbath for punters.
Only one first favourite obliged, and that too in the
last race. By then, many punters had become so suspicious of favourites that
even a genuine one probably looked guilty until proven innocent.
The Times of India Trophy (1600m), for horses rated 60
to 86, was won by Dreamer, who justified favouritism after overhauling the
front-running Rosario close home. Neeraj Rawal had sent Rosario on a
start-to-finish mission, and the colt looked home for all money before tiring
in the shadow of the post. Elysium finished third, while Rosario's stablemate
Namiri produced a performance best described as "present but
unavailable", finishing a disappointing last.
If punters were hoping for redemption, the Mid-Day
Trophy (1600m) quickly informed them that hope is not a betting strategy. Long
shot Floyd gave promising apprentice Ramswarup a memorable winner, holding off
the equally unfancied Fire Away. Favourite Legadema spent more time negotiating
traffic than a commuter on a Monday morning. By the time she found daylight and
switched course, the train had left the station, and third place was the best
she could manage.
The Hindu Trophy (1400m) continued the carnage. Long
shot Tyrannus swept past Emperor Roderic in the straight, with the first four
home all returning at double-digit odds. Wings of Fury, the heavily backed
favourite, discovered that possessing a dramatic name is no substitute for
producing a dramatic finish. On the day, there were neither wings nor fury.
The Free Press Journal Trophy (1400m), for horses in
the lowest class, produced yet another upset. Narendra Lagad's Phantasmique was
a firm favourite and did everything right except the last hundred metres. After
leading enthusiastically, the favourite was collared by Faisal Abbas-trained
Flash Mob, who arrived fashionably late under Umesh to spoil the party. Remy
Red, another outsider, completed a podium that bookmakers probably celebrated
more enthusiastically than punters.
Blinkers came off Little John in the Race Mirror
Trophy (2000m), and, as it turned out, so did the brakes. Dallas Todywalla's
charge transformed himself into a rather big John, producing a late surge under
Neeraj Rawal to snatch victory by a nose from Olivier, who had looked the
likely winner. Favourite Manwar, despite strong market support, contributed
generously to the afternoon's growing collection of disappointed betting slips.
The Indiarace.com Trophy, run in two divisions,
offered further proof that mock races and real races are distant cousins.
Mother's Gift had comfortably beaten several of these rivals in a mock race,
but when the real money was on the table, both horse and jockey arrived with
their best effort after the race was effectively over. Long shot Sukoon gave
Pradeep Chouhan the perfect slice of bliss by edging out Sequential in the
lower division. In the upper division, Narendra Lagad's Red Lightning won
literally by the skin of her teeth, holding off the well-backed Queen Caroline,
who was just a fraction late. Joint favourite El Nino never really threatened
and had to settle for third.
The one race where the market finally stopped playing
practical jokes was the concluding Dopahar Trophy (1200m). Aman Altaf
Hussain-trained Spotlight overcame an awkward draw and won exactly as a
well-backed favourite is expected to win, which by then felt almost
revolutionary. Bohemian Rhapsody nosed out Believe for third, while second
favourite Mila finished fourth.
By the end of the afternoon, the scorecard made for
uncomfortable reading. Favourites had queued up like promising election
manifestos, only to discover reality at the business end. For punters, it was
one of those days when the form book deserved sympathy, the bookmakers deserved
congratulations, and the stewards perhaps deserved a few more questions than
bouquets.
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