When the Favourites Lose Their Way

 

The Media Day card turned into anything but a celebration for the punters. Favourites stumbled, outsiders flourished and the form book took a beating severe enough to warrant a medical examination. While upsets are an essential part of racing, a day when long shots dominate almost every race inevitably raises questions about predictability, confidence and the health of the sport. For punters, it was less Media Day and more survival day.

 

By Sharan Kumar

 

It is customary in our race reviews to ask the most important question of all: did the punters have a chance?

 

Every now and then, someone writes to say that the races were run true to form and the punters went home happy. I am never quite sure whether this is a serious observation or a confession that the gentleman happened to find an outsider while everybody else was busy losing money.

 

Punters do not arrive at a racecourse armed with crystal balls. They study form, watch how the bookmakers shape the ring, listen to professional opinions and try to join the dots. When these indicators point in roughly the same direction and the results follow, punters feel that racing makes sense. They lose occasionally, win occasionally and, most importantly, return for another day.

 

Upsets are part of racing. They are the seasoning in the dish. But when the margin between a genuine upset and a result that leaves everyone scratching their heads becomes too thin, questions inevitably follow. Is the race being run fairly? Are the authorities looking closely enough? Are the corrective mechanisms actually correcting anything?

 

These questions become more uncomfortable when the racing establishment appears to be a rather small club in which everyone knows everyone else. Professionals have their connections, information travels through established channels and the stewards, who are expected to maintain an independent watch, sometimes have the unenviable task of making decisions in an atmosphere where the committee room itself has a temperature.

 

There were times when punters could identify certain stables and say with confidence: if this stable means business, the horse will run its race. That confidence has steadily disappeared. Today, it is becoming increasingly difficult to name even one stable that the ordinary punter can regard as a dependable barometer.

 

The decline in confidence is not helped by the growing perception that bookmakers owning substantial numbers of horses can create yet another layer of uncertainty. When the same ecosystem contains owners, professionals, bookmakers, punters and officials, the question is no longer simply who is the best horse. It becomes: what else should I know before I put my money down?

 

And television does not exactly come to the rescue.

 

If racing television coverage in India matched the quality available in the major racing jurisdictions abroad, half the burden of policing would disappear. Instead, despite all the technological progress, some of our racing pictures still resemble old Eastmancolor films, with the occasional buffering acting as an unwanted suspense thriller. In close finishes, the viewer sometimes needs a detective, a magnifying glass and considerable faith.

 

Be that as it may, what was advertised as a Media Day to honour publications that cover racing turned into something rather different. The invitations, it appeared, were meant for those who applaud politely rather than ask awkward questions. The racing, however, was in no mood for polite applause.

 

It was a bloodbath for punters.

 

Only one first favourite obliged, and that too in the last race. By then, many punters had become so suspicious of favourites that even a genuine one probably looked guilty until proven innocent.

 

The Times of India Trophy (1600m), for horses rated 60 to 86, was won by Dreamer, who justified favouritism after overhauling the front-running Rosario close home. Neeraj Rawal had sent Rosario on a start-to-finish mission, and the colt looked home for all money before tiring in the shadow of the post. Elysium finished third, while Rosario's stablemate Namiri produced a performance best described as "present but unavailable", finishing a disappointing last.

 

If punters were hoping for redemption, the Mid-Day Trophy (1600m) quickly informed them that hope is not a betting strategy. Long shot Floyd gave promising apprentice Ramswarup a memorable winner, holding off the equally unfancied Fire Away. Favourite Legadema spent more time negotiating traffic than a commuter on a Monday morning. By the time she found daylight and switched course, the train had left the station, and third place was the best she could manage.

 

The Hindu Trophy (1400m) continued the carnage. Long shot Tyrannus swept past Emperor Roderic in the straight, with the first four home all returning at double-digit odds. Wings of Fury, the heavily backed favourite, discovered that possessing a dramatic name is no substitute for producing a dramatic finish. On the day, there were neither wings nor fury.

 

The Free Press Journal Trophy (1400m), for horses in the lowest class, produced yet another upset. Narendra Lagad's Phantasmique was a firm favourite and did everything right except the last hundred metres. After leading enthusiastically, the favourite was collared by Faisal Abbas-trained Flash Mob, who arrived fashionably late under Umesh to spoil the party. Remy Red, another outsider, completed a podium that bookmakers probably celebrated more enthusiastically than punters.

 

Blinkers came off Little John in the Race Mirror Trophy (2000m), and, as it turned out, so did the brakes. Dallas Todywalla's charge transformed himself into a rather big John, producing a late surge under Neeraj Rawal to snatch victory by a nose from Olivier, who had looked the likely winner. Favourite Manwar, despite strong market support, contributed generously to the afternoon's growing collection of disappointed betting slips.

 

The Indiarace.com Trophy, run in two divisions, offered further proof that mock races and real races are distant cousins. Mother's Gift had comfortably beaten several of these rivals in a mock race, but when the real money was on the table, both horse and jockey arrived with their best effort after the race was effectively over. Long shot Sukoon gave Pradeep Chouhan the perfect slice of bliss by edging out Sequential in the lower division. In the upper division, Narendra Lagad's Red Lightning won literally by the skin of her teeth, holding off the well-backed Queen Caroline, who was just a fraction late. Joint favourite El Nino never really threatened and had to settle for third.

 

The one race where the market finally stopped playing practical jokes was the concluding Dopahar Trophy (1200m). Aman Altaf Hussain-trained Spotlight overcame an awkward draw and won exactly as a well-backed favourite is expected to win, which by then felt almost revolutionary. Bohemian Rhapsody nosed out Believe for third, while second favourite Mila finished fourth.

 

By the end of the afternoon, the scorecard made for uncomfortable reading. Favourites had queued up like promising election manifestos, only to discover reality at the business end. For punters, it was one of those days when the form book deserved sympathy, the bookmakers deserved congratulations, and the stewards perhaps deserved a few more questions than bouquets.

 


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